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"I'll be sitting in this seat by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer stated, noting that if our discussion was successful, he might welcome us into Downing Street for another conversation in the coming year.

For a PM, there's rarely ever break for those in the top job. Just an hour before we sat down, the PM had been on the phone with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and trying to decipher precisely had happened in Venezuela, where his key political chum, US President Donald Trump, had recently targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time our lengthy talk, which was much longer than typical, had ended, Maduro had been charged in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

But as the year commences, Sir Keir seems to have had something of a revitalisation. Maybe even just a little downtime with the family at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.

That certainly seemed to have left him in a more positive mood than at the difficult tail end of 2025, a terrible political year for him.

But are he and his allies kidding themselves if they believe his political fate are set to turn around?

Leadership Questions

The uncomfortable truth for the prime minister is that many of his colleagues are convinced he's not very good at his job. A faction of them would rather take a risk and get him out sooner rather than later.

However Starmer was rejecting the idea during our conversation on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he insisted he'd be "judged at the poll", insisting nobody would remove his electoral mandate from him – despite the fact that the best chance of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK getting to No 10 might be for Labour to replace its leader.

"This is the battle of our lifetime and I aim to lead us," he said.

Upcoming Local Votes

The issue for the prime minister is that he will be assessed far sooner than then – in a major set of elections in May across the UK. He sought to protest, maybe excessively, that they are about who runs councils, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

Accurate – to some extent. But even though he may be reluctant to admit it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir stating that there were no scenario under which he would resign, should one of his colleagues ran against him for the job, if those elections be catastrophic for Labour.

An Optimistic Outlook

He tried to explain his unpopularity by saying the voters was reasonably anxious for things to get better. He tried to persuade me, and the public, that 2026 would be distinct.

The economy would improve notwithstanding rising unemployment, he claimed, when policies the administration put in place during their first choppy year began to take effect.

• He pledged to close asylum hotels before the current deadline of 2029, although he did not set a firm date on that.
• He said too, with the qualification that it wasn't a foregone conclusion, that a peace deal in Ukraine felt closer now than at any point since Russia's major invasion.
• He disclosed for the first time that Western partners were now considering how to integrate US and European forces to ensure security for Ukraine – to guard a possible peace.

His core message is that in 2026 the country will "see an improvement".

Familiar Arguments

The PM may have communicated with renewed vitality than I've seen from him for a while – more relaxed, perhaps, with a longer slot to talk.

But despite facing calls from many directions for a more decisive approach, with greater political direction, more vigour, more speed and more urgency, his explanations were familiar ones.

When he finds himself in this much political difficulty, does he need a change of tack?

No government, and certainly not one that has been unpopular for an extended period, has everything its as planned.

Sir Keir's challenges are not only because government is challenging, but because he and his colleagues have faltered, even in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister admitted that he regretted saying he was "pleased" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an backlash when comments he'd made in the past – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.

Sir Keir attributed it to "the system" for not realising what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying not my fault.

And he is courting evident political perils as the year unfolds. His friendship with the US president acquires a new complication after Trump's strikes on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over his career, the notion he would be at ease with such action seems unlikely.

International Law and Brexit

He asserted he was a "lifelong champion of international law" but the public "just haven't got the full picture at the moment".

Opponents called for him to denounce it before we spoke. And the government is expected to face further scrutiny to give an clear view in Parliament in the coming days.

And there has long been simmering pressure in the Labour party to undo or remake some of the outcomes of Brexit.

Sir Keir disputes he's heading in that direction, but his new more concrete pledge to align more closely with the European trading bloc – the huge economic European trading zone – will likely provoke howls that he is reneging on his vow never to try to undo the results that flowed from Brexit.

A move to integrate into more of the single market will satisfy a faction on his backbenches, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to