A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
