Within the immense confusion regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.
Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed
The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation saw its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.
The move to assault another independent nation and capture its head of state – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.
A Nation Left in Limbo
Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.
The Superpower as Rogue State
A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a renegade nation.
He is convinced that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.
An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty
George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.
Set aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.
The Thin Pretext and True Motives
Few believe the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.
Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance
The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.
Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.
It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may regret it if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.
