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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd